You don’t have to be a meteorologist to know that if there are dark, swollen rain clouds in the sky, chances are pretty good that it’s going to rain.

The hard part is trying to figure out exactly when and where so you don’t get wet.

That analogy illustrates nicely our conundrum as we attempt to decipher how New York’s $2.1 billion budget deficit may impact SUNY when it comes to state funding in the 2010 state budget.

Will SUNY see state aid cuts in next year’s budget? Will there be mid-year cuts to SUNY? If so, how deep will the cuts be? And when will they come?

How dark are those clouds, anyway? Is it raining yet?

Welcome to the Great Unknown.

We’ve been concerned for quite a while with how state budget cuts over the last few years have impacted SUNY. Things can only get worse if further cuts are made.

It’s the same story we’ve been telling for months: applications and enrollments are up and there aren’t enough instructors to handle the overflow. SUNY professors are being asked to increase their class sizes by 10 percent or more. More budget cuts will certainly mean larger class sizes, especially since more than a few SUNY schools are refusing to open new course sections until every seat in open sections is filled.

It’s not a pretty picture, and it’s one that could become downright ugly if the state Legislature considers cuts to education in the upcoming months. As The Voice went to press, Gov. David Paterson was expected to recall legislators in September to address the budget gap, which could very well be dealt with by making mid-year cuts.

I’d like to tell you that we’re hopeful that the governor won’t suggest making mid-year cuts to education. Better yet, I’d like to tell you that the governor has reconsidered and that mid-year cuts aren’t needed anywhere.

But let’s be realistic. Chances are quite good that SUNY will see a state aid reduction. What concerns me more is the level of those potential cuts. Higher education is always a budget soft spot, and just because we got hit hard last year doesn’t mean we’re getting a kiss on the cheek this time around.

Here’s the bottom line: Cutting aid to SUNY is a mistake. When times are tough, people in New York turn to SUNY for retraining and to find new careers. Look at the communities that host SUNY schools and you’ll find that they are often the major employer in those areas, and a huge economic engine.

Most SUNY graduates, as many as 80 percent, stay in New York after graduating. When they’ve finished their studies, they go to work. They pay taxes; they stimulate the economy. If SUNY is weakened, students will look elsewhere for an education, creating a crisis that will take years to reverse.

As SUNY goes, so does New York’s economy.

Deep mid-year cuts to SUNY would be devastating, Already, SUNY schools have resorted to spending reserve funds, making staff cuts, enacting hiring freezes and increasing their reliance on adjuncts to bridge their budget deficits. UUPers know full well that they’ve been doing more with less, which is never a good situation to be in.

We need you, now more than ever, to be ready to advocate for SUNY. We need you to talk to your local legislators about the necessity of properly funding SUNY, of upholding SUNY’s mission to provide an affordable, quality college education to New Yorkers.

There’s simply too much at stake to let up at this point. We must continue to drive home the message to legislators that

SUNY must be protected and enhanced in upcoming budget talks. We have to make our messages heard: SUNY is the solution to the state’s economic woes.

It is not every day that a UUPer wins accolades from the President of the United States. So when three UUPers win those kinds of kudos, it’s worth mentioning.

Nancy Elwess of Plattsburgh, Scott Craver of Binghamton and Elizabeth Boon of Stony Brook have all been honored, as you’ll read later in The Voice.

Congratulations to the three of you. You help to make UUP shine.